Here comes a 20% stock market plunge if Trump and Democrats don’t agree on trillions more in COVID-19 stimulus

Add the potential of not getting another massive new fiscal stimulus plan as beginning to weigh on the minds of otherwise exuberant investors.

“I think you are looking at a 10% to 15% range minimum [if there isn’t a new stimulus plan],” warned EvercoreISI senior managing director Dennis DeBusschere on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “And then from there it’s going to be about your expectation for the policy response. So you probably go down 10% to 15%, and then we’ll all wait around to see if that 10% to 15% causes the political apparatus to get moving quickly. And if you ultimately get nothing, by the way, you know it’s a down 20%. And you know, we’ll reassess from there.”

In March, lawmakers passed the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES). It surpassed the $700 billion bailout package handed out to Wall Street during the

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Should President Trump quarantine himself after visiting hotspots?

President Trump may not be a civilian, but he remains a human being — and that means he is still susceptible to catching and spreading COVID-19.

The risk of each of those things happening runs higher for Trump than most humans given his intense travel schedule, his age (74), refusal to wear a mask and continued downplaying of the threat of the pandemic. Yahoo News medical contributor Dr. Dara Kass believes it’s time the president is more cautious not only to protect himself, but to signal to the public that COVID-19 continues to be a major health risk.

“It has been a consistent message of, you know, a lack of leadership. A consistent message to say that the rules don’t apply to me. And unfortunately, when he is coming from a hot spot like Arizona where he was on Tuesday and now coming to New Jersey, he’s potentially bringing the

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Most investors now expect Biden to beat Trump, but view it as bearish for stocks

Most U.S. equity investors now expect presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden to defeat President Donald Trump in the November election, according to a new survey from RBC, an event that will also be bearish for stocks given the former Vice President’s policy stances.

According to the survey of 107 institutional investors, 63% of investors expect Biden and the Democrats to win in November. The data represent a sharp reversal from Wall Street’s sentiment before the COVID-19 pandemic, which showed markets consistently pricing in Trump’s reelection.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks about reopening the country during a speech in Darby, Pennsylvania, on June 17, 2020. (Photo by JIM WATSON / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Along those lines, investors anticipating the president’s victory fell substantially for the second consecutive survey, RBC noted. Presently, only 37% see a Trump re-election — down more than half from the

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Trump is no longer the best candidate for business

For most of the last three years, investors and business owners have backed President Trump’s handling of the economy, even if they disapproved of his disruptive leadership style. Trump cut taxes and slashed regulation, gifts to corporate America that boosted business income and stock valuations.

There’s almost no chance Trump could be so generous to business if he wins a second term, since the federal debt is soaring amid the severe coronavirus recession and trillions in new stimulus dollars. “At the beginning of the Trump administration, the agenda was squarely focused on market positives,” Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst for Raymond James, says in the latest episode of the Yahoo Finance Electionomics podcast. “That to-do list is done. Much of what could have been done is completed.”

Trump hasn’t outlined a thorough economic agenda for a second term, but he has indicated his trade fight with China could continue

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Trump would be foolish to start another bruising trade war with China: expert

President Trump may have no choice but to play ball with China on the trade front — his re-election come November could hinge on it.

“Yes it probably does largely because President Trump wants to keep it,” said well-known China expert Gordon Chang on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade on whether the trade deal between the two countries would survive into year end. For Trump, it’s more important to keep his base happy into the election as opposed to igniting another trade war with China, suggests Chang.

“Also you have powerful constituents that want to keep it. The farmers, of course, and manufacturers. China has been meeting its commitments to buy manufactured goods until the Hawaii meeting between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the counsel. So this is something where you have people in the U.S. who want this deal in place,” Chang added.

U.S.-China trade relations — which

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