As the S&P 500 (^GSPC) hovers around 40% from its March 23rd low, one veteran strategist sees similarities with the massive rebound that took place when the markets were emerging from the financial crisis 11 years ago.
“When we look at this week, we’re reminded very much of the rally that started in March 2009,” John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist and managing director at Oppenheimer Asset Management told Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round.
“What we’re seeing is the market is looking to ahead, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months out, while consensus analytics is really looking closer to second quarter earnings season and I think in terms of the news that’s being generated,” he added.
The ‘flattening of the curve’ in terms of COVID-19 and states slowly re-opening are all helping the market look beyond the current quarter.
“We’ve never seen a significant portion of the largest economy in the world shuttered as well as other economies around the world shuttered, and what that would look like coming out,” said Stolzfus. “I think it almost calls for an unprecedented methodology of analysis looking forward.”
Those analysis have also prompted many forecasts as to what the shape of the economic recovery will look like.
“We think in this one, we’ve likely got the process of a V-shape recovery in equities occurring, with likely a U-shaped recovery following, in terms of the economy coming back,” said Stoltzfus.
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Strategists are closely watching for broader participation as a positive indicator for the markets.
Back in April, much of the rally had been fueled by mega cap companies, prompting a warnings about the narrow breadth of the market.
”The good news is the rally is broadening. It’s small, it’s mid-caps, and it’s value,” he said.
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