Zero to 100 real quick for the U.S. economy, maybe.
“In our baseline outlook which follows the positive testing outcomes, we actually have a very sizable snapback in activity in the third quarter. We’re down 45% in the second quarter [GDP], and then we have it up 35% in the third quarter and then 10% in the fourth quarter. For the year as a whole though, that would mean the economy is down around 6.4% or 6.5%,” said Barclays chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
Second quarter GDP being down 45% is one of the more bearish predictions on the Street. But it could prove to be on the mark judging by the lackluster read on first quarter GDP that only reflects a small sampling of the coronavirus’ effects on households and businesses.
First quarter GDP fell 4.8% versus estimates for a drop of 4%.