What a difference a week makes.
President Donald Trump is no longer favored to win re-election in November, according to data from several predictive markets, with former Vice President Joe Biden overtaking the president for the first time as the world struggles to contain the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
As early as last week, oddsmakers forecasted Trump as an overwhelming shoe-in for reelection on markets: Paddy Power, Smarkets and US-Bookies all had a Trump victory baked in. Yet as COVID-19 morphed into a pandemic, his chances have steadily declined, with those same sites now showing Biden pulling even or ahead.
In fact, the rout in stock markets — once a source of bragging rights for Trump — have gravely endangered his re-election prospects, according to a separate forecasting model by Moody’s Analytics.
“Odds are a prediction and a reflection of perceptions of outcomes. Trump’s chance of winning the